Mapping Coastal Risk in India: A Comprehensive Approach Using the IPCC-AR5 Framework
India’s vast coastline, spanning over 7,500 kilometers, is both a critical economic resource and a hotspot of environmental vulnerability. Coastal regions are increasingly under threat from extreme climatic events such as cyclones, storm surges, and high tides, which inflict devastating impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. A recent study by Malakar et al. (2021), published in the Journal of Environmental Management, undertakes the challenge of systematically quantifying these risks using the latest framework from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Understanding Risk: A Holistic Framework
Risk, as defined in the IPCC-AR5 framework, is a product of three components: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. Unlike earlier vulnerability-centric frameworks, this approach integrates biophysical hazards (like cyclones and storm surges) with socio-economic contributors to vulnerability and exposure, offering a more holistic view of risk. Malakar et al. applied this framework to assess and map risks across India’s coastal districts at two points in time: 2001 and the present.
Methodology Highlights
The study utilized a multi-attribute decision-making method, TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), to calculate indices for hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. These indices were then combined to generate an overall risk index. The study draws on diverse data sources, including census statistics, meteorological records, and hydrological studies, to ensure a robust analysis.
Key Findings
Higher Risk on the Eastern Coast: Coastal districts along the Bay of Bengal are more prone to hazards like cyclones and storm surges compared to those on the western coast. This trend is exacerbated by socio-economic vulnerabilities, such as inadequate infrastructure and limited access to resources.
Temporal Changes in Risk: The study revealed that risk levels have generally increased since 2001, driven primarily by heightened hazards. However, improvements in infrastructure and socio-economic conditions have led to a decline in vulnerability and exposure in many districts.
High-Risk Districts: The eastern districts of Purba Medinipur, South 24 Parganas (West Bengal), and Balasore (Odisha) emerged as the most risk-prone. Greater Mumbai, despite being a western district, ranks high due to its significant exposure from dense population and urbanization.
Spatial Variations: The western districts of Goa and Kerala showed relatively low risk, attributed to lower hazard frequencies and better socio-economic resilience.
Policy Implications
The findings underline the urgent need for tailored disaster risk reduction strategies. For eastern coastal districts, measures like cyclone shelters, sea walls, and early warning systems are essential to mitigate physical risks. Socio-economic interventions, such as improving housing quality, access to healthcare, and financial inclusion, can enhance adaptive capacity in vulnerable regions.
For densely populated urban centers like Mumbai and Chennai, policies must focus on managing exposure by promoting decentralized urban development and safeguarding critical infrastructure. Developing resilient suburban areas can also help in redistributing population pressures.
Contribution to Climate Risk Research
This study stands out as the first to apply the IPCC-AR5 framework at a district scale for an entire national coastline. The resulting risk maps offer valuable cartographic tools for policy-makers, enabling informed decisions on resource allocation and intervention planning. By incorporating both historical and current data, the study also provides a template for temporal risk assessments that can track the effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures over time.
Conclusion
The escalating risks faced by India’s coastal regions highlight the critical importance of proactive and integrated approaches to disaster management. Malakar et al.’s study not only contributes to academic literature but also offers actionable insights for governments and communities striving for resilience against climate-induced threats. As the climate crisis intensifies, such comprehensive risk assessments will be indispensable in safeguarding coastal ecosystems and livelihoods.
